Last week was momentous. News that the American President would be meeting with the North Korean dictator “by May” hit the headlines like thunder. Never before has this happened. It is totally without precedent. And Trump is just the President to do it.

But was this news good news? For the moment, I think it is very good news. However, it comes with no slight danger.

On the good side — it is clear that the “maximum pressure” policy of the United States and its allies has been having an effect. North Korea has suffered as a result of the toughest sanctions ever imposed upon it. Given that it was an extremely isolated country even before the sanctions makes this all the more significant. It isn’t called “the Hermit Kingdom” for no reason. Its financial system has been deprived of any succor from the outside, its imports of oil from China, despite some exceptions, have gone down, etc. South Korean media reported several weeks ago that the North Korean regime was essentially bankrupt. Recall: the economy of South Korea is over a trillion dollars in size. The North Korean economy is only about $30 billion. When your people are starving, the margin of error is extremely small.

That puts Kim Jong Un in a tough position. The legitimacy of his regime, and its ability to remain stable and standing, depends on it being perceived as able to defend itself, and as being strong in the face of foreign “aggression.” The fatal combination for North Korea is a people that is completely starved, and a military that no longer appears to be able to maintain the authority of the regime. During the great famine of the 1990’s, the military prop held up the regime. Kim’s family has bet that having a nuclear program as part of this military prop would maintain their power indefinitely as a deterrent against the West. But if you are bankrupt, having a nuclear program you can no longer develop doesn’t serve that purpose.

Thus, here we are.

Momentous, but Not Without Dangers

It is a momentous development. But it does not come without its dangers. The Kim regime has lied over and over again. Whenever it has gained concessions from the West, either in the form of money, food, or even assistance in the development of “peaceful” nuclear power, it has reneged on every deal it has made. That remains a significant danger here, and we should not underestimate the willingness of the latest Kim to continue the modus operandi of all the previous Kims.

Kim Jong Un has one interest — remaining in power — self-preservation. If he has any true interest in the “de-nuclearization of the Korean peninsula,” it will no doubt be on the condition that not just he, but the United States itself remove its own nuclear weapons from the peninsula. It could even include a demand that the U.S. remove its own troops, which until now have served as the only viable deterrent against North Korean aggression toward South Korea since the Korean War of the 1950’s. In any event, that would mean that the South would be on its own in defending against conventional North Korean military assets. That would be a bad and dangerous policy for the United States.

Likewise, Kim could simply be stalling for time. I was encouraged to hear the President insist that the “maximum pressure” policy would be maintained up to and during the talks. This is vital.

The stakes for these talks could not be higher. If they fail, we will likely be in an even more dangerous situation than we are now.

Praying in Hopeful Optimism

But, we shall see. In the short term, we can be justifiably optimistic. We are in unchartered territory, which by definition means this time could be different.

In the long term, however, we must be vigilant. A promise to talk is not a promise of peace. History shows such a notion to be false.

In the meantime, we can pray, we can advocate, we can monitor the North Koreans, and we can hope that when all of this is complete, we may hear “blessed are the peacemakers.”