John Kasich may be the last Republican to enter the presidential fray, but his timing could be the best: Exactly two weeks after the splash of his planned announcement on July 21, Fox News Channel will average together the latest polls of the Republican field and determine which 10 of the 16 announced candidates will participate in the first debate in Cleveland.

Making the cut gives a candidate the platform to stand out in a crowded field; not making the cut leaves him or her knocking on the door.

Every candidate — with the exceptions of Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, and Marco Rubio — is in danger of losing his or her place. That leaves the rest of the field hoping their numbers will tick up at just the right time, knowing that the tiniest fluctuation of numbers could be the difference between acceptance and rejection. The difference between being on the main debate stage and being relegated to the B-team is likely be at most one or two points.

Kasich’s announcement could generate enough publicity to give him at least a brief bump — and a spot in the August 6 debate at the expense of a rival. Political neophytes Ben Carson and Donald Trump seem likely to generate enough publicity on their own to get them over the polling hurdle. If Kasich can bounce into the top 10, that would leave the rest of the field — 10 candidates, almost all of whom have held major elective office — fighting for four spots.

“There will be a huge amount of attention and coverage around the first debate,” said one aide to a GOP presidential campaign, to whom POLITICO granted anonymity to discuss strategy candidly. “That’s when we’ll see a lot of voters tune in for the first time.”

Read the article “Upcoming Polls to Lock in GOP Debate Fields” on politico.com.