The Russian military intervention in Syria, and the creation of a new regional alliance which includes Iran and Iraq, removes one undesirable outcome from the complex equation. The collapse of the government in Damascus, and its replacement by some form of jihadist-dominated Sharia regime which would spell the end of the non-Sunni minorities (including Christians), is no longer on the cards.

It does not herald the advent of a new era of moderation and realism among the key players, however, which would lead to a political settlement in the near future. Even if Moscow and Washington could agree on the broad outline of a new political framework—from which the old upfront demand for Bashar al-Assad’s immediate ouster would be removed—it is doubtful that they could impose on their regional allies a blueprint which is at odds with their strategic ambitions. Those ambitions remain fundamentally incompatible.

In the “American” camp, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Oman would be loath to accept the end of their plan to turn Syria into a permanent Sunni Muslim wedge dividing what they see as a putative Shiite-dominated crescent extending from Iran across Iraq and Syria into northern Lebanon. For all of them the issue is eminently geopolitical, and it is not at all compatible with with the stated primary U.S. objective of defeating ISIS (the rhetoric of removing “Assad’s murderous regime” notwithstanding). They do not care  who does the stopping.

In Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s case, it contains an added complication. His parallel objective is to contain the Kurdish combat groups in northern Syria and northwestern Iraq which are vigorously fighting ISIS but are allied to the PKK (the Kurdish People’s Party)—which the Turkish Islamist president sees as an existential threat to Turkey’s stability and territorial integrity, and which have suffered far more damage from his air attacks in recent weeks than the Islamic State itself.

As for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies, it is most unlikely that they would cease helping their protégés—the al-Qaeda affiliated al-Nusra Front and its many offshoots loosely known as the Army of Conquest—which are every bit as “violently extreme” as ISIS, and with which they may easily join forces in the fulness of time. The “moderates” do not exist.

Read the article “Syria: No End Game in Sight” on chroniclesmagazine.org.