Baker’s estimate of 1 percent GDP growth lays right along the political-science dividing line, where Democrats shift from being favored to win the presidency to being slight underdogs. Despite the millions of jobs created in President Obama’s second term, a stinker of a final year would color people’s perceptions, and make it difficult for the Democratic candidate.

There’s not much to be done between now and the election to change the economic trajectory. Republicans control Congress and have no interest in—or incentive toward—programs that spend money and stimulate growth. The budget deal commits the government to slightly higher spending, but not enough to reverse any trend.

Read the article “The Most Obscure, Yet Important, Chart That Could Decide the 2016 Election” on newrepublic.com.