Donald Trump won Alabama by 28 points. But Roy Moore — with Trump’s endorsement and RNC money — got less than half the Trump votes. A safe Senate seat was lost to a liberal. What happened? Where does the GOP go from here? 

What Happened?

Moore had many problems that gave leaders pause. His past judicial activism, ironically, caused him to be removed from the Alabama Supreme Court not once, but twice. His ignorance of history and the Constitution led to a steady stream of gaffes. His seeming obsession with gays and same-sex marriage, his total lack of nuance — all of this made Moore stereotype fodder for the DNC’s efforts to brand Republicans as backwards, insensitive, bigoted know-nothings.

And then came the sexual molestation allegations. What if Moore had just admitted that he dated teens, which was more common then, and that he now regrets doing so? Everyone knows he dated teens. Why the multiple contradictory responses? Denying he knew them was easy to disprove. Saying “I never molested anyone” sounds like a Clintonesque denial, given that nobody alleged rape.

What if Moore had said the girls were always, to the best of his memory, above the age of consent, that he always respected “no means no,” and that after marrying his skirt-chasing ceased? That he’s been faithful to his wife and raised his sons to be gentlemen? “I’m a different man now. That was 40 years ago. Please judge my character on the totality of my life.”

If Trump was able to apologize his way out of a grotesque, guilt-admitting 10-year old Access Hollywood tape, and win enough votes a few weeks later in blue states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, couldn’t a sincere apology from Moore had swayed 22,000 voters in the reddest of red states?

Don’t get me wrong: I think Moore was an unqualified candidate apart from the sexual allegations. And I believed the women. But I understand why many of my friends supported him this week. Jones was for abortion in all 9 months, a reliable liberal on LBGT issues, bad on judges, and more. That said, I hope Moore supporters will consider that Moore would have been a mighty weapon for the DNC in 2018.

I think the GOP dodged a bullet. Agree or disagree, it’s time to learn and move forward. Blaming Trump voters for staying home won’t stop Chuck Schumer from becoming majority leader in 2018.

Trump/Clinton Was Unique

Trump and Moore both ran as outsiders. Both had serious baggage. If Trump could deflect, why couldn’t Moore? Because Trump was running against a uniquely despised villain. One with a long record and deep familiarity to voters. And because the stakes were much higher. It wasn’t so much that they liked Trump. He got fewer votes than Romney. It was that they hated Hillary Clinton. And feared what she’d do over 4-8 years.

Doug Jones’s views are way out there for Alabama, but he’s a fresh face and a nice guy. All he had to do was act pleasant, blend in, and give people an excuse to vote for him. His turnout was almost as high as Hillary’s in a much less consequential contest on an odd day in December. 

Broaden the Appeal

Trump’s first year is not as bad as the mainstream media suggests. He’s cut job-killing regulations. He’s destroying ISIS. He’s appointing originalist judges. The economy is growing at a more than 3 percent rate, consumer spending is up, business investment is up, unemployment is down, and it looks like wages are starting to rise, even for blue collar workers.

On the other hand, Trump’s approval numbers stink. He’s yet to fix Obamacare. And he continues to be viewed as a polarizing figure. It will take broader appeal for the GOP to win in 2018.

Fix the Brand

Take the tax reform bill. Blue Dog Democrats were initially open to lowering the corporate tax rate. None of them ended up voting for the bill, which had 13 GOP defections in the House and 1 in the Senate. Less than half of Americans support the GOP bill. Why? Because most Americans doubt the GOP bill will cut their taxes or boost the economy.

And if you’re in the forty-something percent of Americans who don’t pay income taxes? You don’t see any direct benefit. Nor do you care that the stock market is breaking records. All you know is that your wages have been suppressed for years.

Marco Rubio and many other Republicans wanted a more generous child tax credit, one that would have helped the working poor. To pay for it, they wanted to lower corporate taxes a little bit less than Trump, from 35 percent to 20.94 percent instead of 20.00 percent. The answer was no.

But now? Just today, in conference, the House and Senate has struck a deal. Here’s how the National Review  reports it: “The new bill would reduce the corporate tax rate to 21 percent, rather than the original 20 percent, in order to fund a reduction of the top individual tax rate to 37 percent” (from 39.6 percent). How is that going to play in the mainstream media?

It’s what marketers call negative branding. And the DNC will love it come 2018. 

Bipartisanship is Possible

Reagan had bipartisan support for his tax cuts in 1981 and 1986. So did Bush in 2001. Why? Because they put forth bills that some Democrats felt they had to support. The consequences of not doing so would be worse. When push comes to shove, almost every politician’s deepest loyalty is to their own convictions (a.k.a., self-preservation), not party. They won’t vote in lock-step with Schumer if they don’t feel they can.

As for now, they feel they have Trump on the run. So the GOP needs to be smart, work towards consensus within their caucus, but also broaden the appeal of their bills so that red state Senators up for reelection in 2018 feel they have to support them. Senators like Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND), Joe Manchin (D-WV), Joe Tester (D-MT), Claire McCaskill (D-MO), and Joe Donnelly (D-IN). They’ll be running in states Trump won by double-digits. In total, there are 34 Senate seats up in 2018, of which 26 are held by Democrats or independents that caucus with Democrats. That’s a huge opportunity for the GOP. 

Oh, and Senate-elect Doug Jones in Alabama? You neutralize the bad he can do by maintaining a GOP majority. The poor fellow is up for reelection in 2020 — a presidential election year. Just about any Republican should beat him by 20 points.

(UPDATE: Sen. Marco Rubio announced Thursday that he will vote “no” on the tax bill unless he gets an increase in the refundable portion of the child tax credit. The deal negotiated between the House and Senate puts that figure at $1,100. With the Alabama Senate seat soon flipping from a yes to a no with the pending arrival of Doug Jones, Sen. Rubio likely figures he has more leverage to pressure for what he wants.)

Dr. Alex Chediak (Ph.D., U.C. Berkeley) is a professor and the author of Thriving at College (Tyndale House, 2011), a roadmap for how students can best navigate the challenges of their college years. His latest book is Beating the College Debt Trap. Learn more about him at www.alexchediak.com or follow him on Twitter (@chediak).