#Election2020: Don’t Believe the Hype About a Biden Blowout

By Al Perrotta Published on October 10, 2020

It’s done. It’s over. No need to vote, Trump supporter. Just toss the MAGA hat in the closet and prepare to welcome Queen Kamala. I mean, President Biden. Well, that’s what the mainstream media is trying to tell you: Joe Biden has this election in the bag. “Just look at the polls.”

A much touted NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has Biden up 14% nationally. CNN has him 16% up. The Real Clear Politics average sits with Biden up 9.6. Joe and Kamala don’t have time tell you how they are going to pack the Supreme Court to ensure that radical justices rule for the next century. They’re too busy picking out curtains for the Oval Office.

Don’t believe the hype. Like the old rap song says, don’t believe the hype.

A Majority Say They Are Better Off Now Than They Were Four Years Ago

Others can take a deep dive into the polling methodology to show you how the polls are skewed. I want to show you three other numbers that suggest something altogether different is going on in the real voting world.

Here’s the first one: A majority of voters say their life has improved under President Trump. In the tight 1980 election between incumbent Jimmy Carter and challenger Ronald Reagan, Reagan asked a simple question to American voters: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”

The answer was a resounding “No.” Reagan went on to win.

In 2012, only 44% of people thought their life had improved under President Obama, and he won re-election. In 2004, only 47% of people thought their life had improved under President George W. Bush, and he won re-election.

This year? Despite being in the middle of a pandemic, which gave the American workforce a brutal blow to the gut, 56% of Americans still say they are better off than they were four years ago. No surprise, given the booming pre-COVID economy, expanded opportunity, lower taxes, higher wages, lower drug prices, higher efficiency of government services, etc.

Is it logical to think voters are going to fire Trump — who helped improve their lives since the past administration — to rehire Biden, the #2 person in that previous administration? Are Americans going to go backwards? Are we really Israelites begging to return to the security of slavery in Egypt? (There’s a sermon for ya, pastors.)

An Increasing Number Say They Think Their Neighbors are Voting for Trump

Here’s the second one: A lot more voters think their neighbors are voting for Trump than Biden. A new Fox News poll of registered voters shows 49% think their neighbors are voting for Trump, as opposed to 38% for Biden. That 11-point gap is up five points since August.

The same Fox News poll says Biden is up 10% on Trump, 53-43. Something’s funky in Voterville.

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In this vicious anti-Trump climate, folks are not necessarily going to tell pollsters the truth about their own voting plans. But they will be more honest about others’ plans. In fact, there is one train of thought that says people are actually telegraphing their own voting preference when they say how they think their neighbors are going to vote.

How big is the so-called “silent majority”? There’s no way to know until Election Day. But it’s there. For example, a Monmouth survey in Pennsylvania over the summer showed 57% of registered voters believe there is a “silent vote” in their community for Trump.

Silent Democrats for Trump

I suspect a lot of Democrats can’t stand Trump, but see the radicals taking over the party, hate the BLM and Antifa rioting, loathe the draconian restrictions Democratic governors and mayors have put on their lives. They’ve been stewing for months: “I can’t go to church or go to my grandmother’s funeral, but it’s fine for ‘protesters’ to tear through the streets?!”

But the thought of voting for Trump has them in a fix. They are like so many evangelical voters in 2016, who couldn’t imagine voting for Big Bad Orange, but in the last weeks bit the bullet and chose what was best for America’s future. That’s the silent vote I’m curious about. “I’ve voted Democrat all my life, but this time I just can’t.”

Know there are conservatives who felt the same way in 2016, Democratic friends. You should read this wonderful article from David Sound in The Federalist. The title says it all: “I Didn’t Vote for Trump in 2016, But I’d Crawl Through Glass to Vote for Him Now.”

Rushing to Hear the President

Did you tune in to hear President Trump’s two-hour chat with Rush Limbaugh Friday? You were far from alone. According to one estimate, 50,000,000 people tuned in. 50 MILLION. Five-Zero. For reference, Rush, by far the most popular radio host in America, averages about 15 million listeners a week.

Look at this another way: In 2016, Donald Trump got roughly 63 million votes. So, Trump drew 80% of his vote total. For a radio show. In the middle of a work day.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris had their first joint campaign appearances Friday in Arizona. Check out the size of the crowd in Yuma.

Help me understand this: 50 million people turned into a radio show just to hear Trump jaw-bone with Limbaugh. Biden and Harris together get about 40 people to come out in a swing state weeks before the election. And Trump is losing?!?!?!?

Enthusiasm

Which gets to a third number that suggests something different is going on in the real voting world: The enthusiasm gap between the two candidates is off the chart. A Fox News survey has 59% of Trump voters enthusiastic about voting for Trump. Only 43% for Biden.

The socialist magazine Jacobin is fretting that this enthusiasm gap could push Trump to victory. The “really scary part”? At this point in 2016, Hillary Clinton was beating Trump when it came to enthusiasm 44% to 43%.

You’ve seen the massive Trump boat parades, even in blue states. You’ve seen massive Trump car caravans, even through the streets of Los Angeles. You haven’t seen Biden flags or signs hardly anywhere.

In fact, writing in the Holland (Michigan) Sentinel, Richard Brouwer – clearly no Trump supporter — reported an interesting statistic uncovered by a friend. “His internet search revealed red campaign flag and banner hits (Trump) at 716 million, compared to 75 million blue (Biden) hits, a 10-1 enthusiasm discrepancy.”

This could be Trouble with a Capital T, as the song goes.

An analysis published in the academic publication Electoral Studies in 2014 suggests how enthusiasm gaps play out in the actual voting booth. Researcher Seth J. Hill at the University of California, San Diego reached three conclusions:

  • The advantaged party sees increased turnout by up to four percentage points.
  • The advantaged party sees increased vote share by up to 1.5 percentage points.
  • The advantaged party does especially well in the most competitive places.

Translation: Advantage Trump.

Don’t Let Your Spirit Be Suppressed and Depressed

Please understand what the media is doing when they publish weighted polls showing Biden way ahead. Why 95% of their coverage of Trump is negative. Why last weekend they had Trump at death’s door. Why even when Trump is bouncing off the walls and yapping up a storm, sounding fit as a fiddle, CNN is obsessing that Trump coughed a couple times during an interview with Hannity.

While ignoring Joe Biden not only coughing, but violating COVID protocol, defeating the whole purpose of masks, to remove his mask and cough in his hand during a speech Friday.)

As a working arm of the Democratic Party, the mainstream media wants to suppress enthusiasm. They want to suppress the vote.

They want to suppress and depress Americans.

Now that you are on to them, neighbor, you know what to do.

 

Al Perrotta is the Managing Editor of The Stream and co-author, with @JZmirak, of The Politically Incorrect Guide to Immigration. You can follow him at @StreamingAl. And if you aren’t already, please follow The Stream at @Streamdotorg 

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