More Big Earthquakes Coming to California, Forecast Says

New report says a magnitude-8 quake in 30 years is more likely.

A 3D view of the likelihood that a magnitude-6.7 earthquake will hit in the next 30 years.

By Published on March 12, 2015

A new view of California’s earthquake risk slightly raises the likelihood of big earthquakes in the Golden State, but lowers the chance that people in some regions will feel shaking from smaller, magnitude-6.7 quakes.

The new report does not predict when or where earthquakes will strike, nor how big the next quake will be; instead, it provides a better sense of how often earthquakes will occur and how likely faults are to break in the next three decades. This information helps set earthquake insurance rates and building codes in California.

Under the new forecast, the likelihood of a magnitude-8 earthquake in the next 30 years has increased from about 4.7 percent to 7 percent. A magnitude-8 quake would be twice as strong as the devastating 1906 San Francisco earthquake, a magnitude 7.8.

Read the article “More Big Earthquakes Coming to California, Forecast Says” on livescience.com.

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