ANALYSIS: The NH GOP Presidential Pre-Debate

By Rachel Alexander Published on August 4, 2015

The first major debate between Republican presidential candidates occurs on Thursday, and some people are not happy that only the top ten polling candidates are being allowed to participate. The sole female candidate in the race, Carly Fiorina, didn’t make the cut. Nor did two of the leading presidential contenders from 2012, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum, which seems odd considering competitive presidential contenders often go on in later election cycles to cinch the nomination (think Ronald Reagan and Mitt Romney). The second tier candidates will participate in a shorter forum before the main debate, already derisively nicknamed “the kids’ table.”

But at a New Hampshire forum Monday night, 14 of the candidates participated. Donald Trump refused to participate because the host newspaper, Union-Leader, indicated it would not be endorsing him. Mike Huckabee skipped it and Jim Gilmore entered the race too late to qualify.

During the two-hour debate, the candidates were separately asked a few questions geared specifically toward each one, followed by a second round of questions. There was plenty of time for them to provide their answers. The whole operation moved so smoothly it seemed very likely the candidates had been given the questions in advance.

Rick Santorum took the riskiest approach of the candidates. In an attempt to appeal to blue collar, working class Republicans, he said a big concern is that manufacturing jobs are decreasing. Since the rapid advancement of technology is one reason why many manufacturing jobs are disappearing, his position could appear outdated or catering to unions.

Lindsey Graham was the surprise star of the evening. Although his delivery is so low-key it detracts from him appearing presidential, he had some choice words for Obama and the Clintons on foreign policy. Regarding Hillary, he said, “Hillary is the last person you want to send into the realm of the Russians. I understand the Clintons.” However, unlike the other three senators in the race, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul, who appeared remotely by video, Graham skipped the Senate vote on starting the process of defunding Planned Parenthood in order to attend the forum in person.

In stark contrast to Graham, Rick Perry appeared presidential but ducked one of the questions. When asked what he would do about the 11 million illegal immigrants currently in the country, he changed the subject and talked about border control generally.

John Kasich made it clear he was not running as a conservative. When asked about illegal immigration, he said there needs to be a guest worker program and a path to citizenship after the illegal immigrants pay a penalty and get in back of the line.

Chris Christie also toed a more moderate line. When asked about drug use and rehabilitation for those in prison, he responded, “The war on drugs is a failure; everyone makes mistakes, this could happen to anyone.”

Ben Carson discussed his alternative plan to Obamacare, health savings accounts, saying, “It doesn’t work as well for the indigent, but they could be taught how to handle personal responsibility.” He was adamant that Planned Parenthood should be defunded, and recommended a 10 to 15 percent flat tax.

Jeb Bush gave a measured response when asked about ISIS, saying he doesn’t know if boots on the ground is the answer, but we can support those fighting ISIS with air and military power. He was also nuanced discussing illegal immigration, saying we should limit familial (chain) migration to spouses and children.

Carly Fiorina came out swinging against Hillary’s emails: “I think Hillary thinks they’re political inconveniences, but she lied about Benghazi.” She criticized government funding of Planned Parenthood. And she criticized the business-as-usual mindset in Washington that protects the status quo, especially when it comes to talk about the border being unsecured for 30 years but nothing is ever done about it.

Bobby Jindal, who calls himself an American, not an Indian-American, railed against hyphenated racial American names, saying, “We’re all Americans. This president is trying to divide us. At least Bernie is honest enough to call himself a socialist. No more hyphenated Americans.”

Scott Walker moved a little to the middle on at least one of his answers. When asked whether climate change is man-made, he responded by saying that we need to balance sustainability with other interests.

George Pataki, one of the most moderate candidates in the race, said he has experience working with Democrats to get things accomplished and would bring that ability with him to the presidency.

Rand Paul emphasized both protecting the U.S. from terrorism and ISIS, and avoiding excessive government intrusions into Americans’ privacy.

Ted Cruz, although he wasn’t asked about Planned Parenthood, started his segment declaring that it must be defunded. He then raged against the political establishment: “The Washington cartel in the Senate, they get in bed with lobbyists and special interests — we won Congress but we don’t follow the American people who elected us. They beat the living daylights out of you when you stand against the cartels. Republicans attack you. Reagan stood up to the Washington cartel and tuned it around.”

On immigration, Marco Rubio took a moderate approach, talking about a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, stating that it “must be based on merit, not familial, pass a background check, pay a fine, pay taxes, etc.” He said he opposes drug legalization except in certain cases for medicinal use.

Overall, the candidates performed well. There were no gaffes or embarrassing moments, evidence they received the questions in advance. A few came across as a little too quiet or timid, however, and unless they can step up their game, will end up being weeded out. Considering how volatile the polls have been, and how well this forum went, it seems absurd to limit the major debates to only the top candidates.

If the polls change in the future, certain candidates will appear in some debates but not others, which makes little sense. People are beginning to tire of the TV news networks’ continued control over the major debates, as technology changes and people move to streaming video and the internet for their news. The networks really need to reassess cutting out the other candidates from all of the remaining ten major debates, or risk getting marginalized in 2020.

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