Got Growth? Good News About the Economy

By Rob Schwarzwalder Published on July 26, 2018

A few years ago, I was talking with a well-known economics writer. He was a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize some time back. I respect him for his honesty and refusal to offer simple answers.n“On a broad scale,” I asked, “what do you think of the economy?”

“I don’t know,” he said. “I used to think I understood the economy, but not anymore. I really don’t understand all that’s going on.”

I don’t blame him. There are many aspects to our economy, and none can be considered independently. They are as entwined as threads in a tapestry.

On top of that, nothing is permanent. Economic growth doesn’t continue in a nice, straight, upward line. Political decisions often interfere with the open market. Pandering to people’s worst instincts and left-wing policies join together to gum up the works far too much.

But even with that, there’s some good news we should recognize. And celebrate.

A Lot of Good News

Since the 2016 election, we’ve had a major and very productive overhaul of our tax code. It’s resulted in lots of new jobs. “Trump Tax Cut Leads To Doubling Of Job Growth In Low-Tax States Vs. High-Tax,” says a headline about a month ago in Forbes.

Here’s The Conference Board summary: “The US economy has been soaring so far in 2018 thanks in part to stimulus measures, both tax cuts and increased government spending. GDP is projected to have increased by 4.2 percent in the second quarter and we raised our outlook for 2018 and 2019 to an average of 3.1 percent growth. Thanks to a strong labor market, consumers remain confident and continue to spend.”

What about wages? We’re looking at the majority of large employers providing an average increase of about three percent this year. But given low inflation and the varied menu of other types of compensation – 401K plans, employer-sponsored health care, paid vacations, paid college degree programs, and so forth – three percent might not really be so bad.

Be Glad

Every American should be glad about these things. “There’s little question that the economy, and particularly the jobs picture, are strong. The 3.8 percent unemployment rate is the lowest since 2000,” reports Louis Jacobson in Politifact.

The Congressional Budget Office says that as of June, “revenues from federal income taxes were $76 billion higher in the first half of this year, compared with the first half of 2017. That’s a 9 percent jump, even though the lower income tax withholding schedules went into effect in February.”

Over the past six months, the stock market has resembled Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride more than the strong and steady growth investors prefer. At the same time, since Mr. Trump took office, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained almost exactly 5,000 points.

That means trillions of dollars in new wealth.

Room for Improvement

While “total employment has risen from 138 million to 155.6 million and the number of unemployed has shrunk to 6.6 million,” since 2009, only 63 percent of the people who can work are working. The percentage was almost 67 percent in 2000.

So, of the people who could work, 37 percent are not – many of them because they’ve just chosen to quit looking.

One reason some of them quit applying is that President Obama made dependence on the federal government a lot easier. He “gutted work requirements for welfare.” The result? The data show that “the Obama administration and many state governments used a variety of loopholes and gimmicks to help weaken work requirements and boost participation (in the food stamp program) to … more than 47.6 million people” in 2013.

As of a few weeks ago, that number had gone down to about 41.2 million. Some of that decline happened under President Obama, but the pro-growth policies of the current administration are playing a major role.

There’s also the reality that there are millions of “off the books” employees. “The U.S. civilian workforce includes 8 million unauthorized immigrants, accounting for 5 percent of those who were working or were unemployed and looking for work,” Pew Research estimates.

A lot of Americans don’t want entry-level jobs that don’t pay very well. While this is understandable, it’s not an excuse. And it’s one of the main reason illegal immigrants are working and in some cases thriving. Their work ethic puts that of some American citizens to shame.

Of Course, There’s the Debt

Of course, there’s our $21 billion nation debt, and our $800 billion federal deficit this year alone. Social Security and Medicare need major modernization and improvement. There’s also the controversy over the President’s trade policies, which place some American businesses at risk.

But in fairness to him, especially with respect to China, we’ve needed to take action for a long time. Tariffs are a blunt instrument, but sometimes a hard line brings good results.

It’s easy to be dissatisfied, but right now, for most Americans, the glass if more than half full. Like my friend the economics writer, I find aspects of our economy that are a mystery. But there’s a lot that’s clearly positive. And to be grateful for.

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