With John Boehner’s stunning announcement that he would be stepping down as Speaker of the House and resigning from Congress, three Congressmen have stepped forward to replace him. There is Kevin McCarthy, the House majority leader, who is considered the natural, establishment replacement for Boehner. There is Jason Chaffetz, chairman of the high-profile House Oversight Committee and widely considered one of the minority of consistent conservatives in Congress. Finally, there is the relatively unknown Daniel Webster of Florida, who as a state legislator defended comatose Teri Schiavo from efforts to pull her feeding tube, but has not acquired a very conservative record in Congress.

The first vote occurs in secret on Thursday, and it is really determinative, since few members will change their vote after that for the public vote. The first vote includes the full Republican caucus of 247. The second public vote includes the entire House, and takes place on October 29.

Chaffetz has a respectable lifetime rating of 92 by the American Conservative Union. With the exception of a few blips, he is considered one of the most stalwart conservatives in Congress. He was criticized by some conservatives for stripping Rep. Mark Meadows, a House Freedom Caucus founder from North Carolina, of his subcommittee chairmanship last summer for voting against a procedural motion that would have enabled fast track for consideration of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. However, fast track is an issue that has divided conservatives, and so his move wasn’t clearly anti-conservative. Chaffetz eventually returned the chairmanship to Meadows.

McCarthy has a lifetime rating from the ACU of 88, which dipped down to 72 in 2013 and 76 in 2014.

Webster has a 78 lifetime rating, which dipped to 72 the last couple of years.

Chaffetz announced he was running after McCarthy made a highly publicized gaffe, appearing to state during a television interview that the Benghazi House Committee was formed in order to sink Hillary Clinton’s election chances. McCarthy went on an apology tour, but the statement clearly damaged him. In his defense, his remarks looked bad on paper, but how they came across on video was another story; he did not seem to be implying the committee was created to hurt her chances, simply that its creation had hurt her chances.

Some see Webster as a spoiler in the race, since he could divide up the reformers’ votes, allowing McCarthy to easily get the position. McCarthy’s supporters say he has 200 votes lined up for Thursday. He only needs 125 to win. Chaffetz says at least 50 Republicans won’t back McCarthy. Even if McCarthy wins Thursday’s vote, if more than 29 Republicans vote against him on the House floor vote next month, he will not cinch the speakership.

If history is any guide this is unlikely. There hasn’t been a second round of votes for Speaker in the full House since 1923. But if anti-establishment fever turns the unlikely into reality, it would throw a monkey wrench into everything, leading to subsequent votes and possibly new candidates, which could include powerhouse Paul Ryan, who so far has shied away from the race.

So does dark horse Chaffetz even have a shot? According to KUTV, a local station in his home state of Utah, “It sounds like a futile attempt but politicos who watch such races will tell you ‘nothing with Chaffetz is impossible.’ In the 7 years he has been in Congress, he’s proven to be a wonder boy on more than one occasion. He’s also considered a hard worker who still spends nights on the cot inside his office.”

Also in Chaffetz’s favor is the anti-establishment, anti-compromise sentiment sweeping the House. Boehner reportedly stepped down because of growing discontent among the most conservative members. Frustrated over his lack of effort to defund Planned Parenthood and his compromising with Democrats and Obama, the conservative House Freedom Caucus was considering a vote to oust him. They see very little difference between Boehner and McCarthy, a view confirmed by Boehner endorsing McCarthy as his replacement.

The question of whether the new speaker will be conservative or not has dominated press coverage, but the race is about more than ideology. It is about who is going to remain with the status quo and procedures that protect the “old guard” in Congress, their plum committee positions and their special interests. Will someone dare to challenge them?

Unfortunately, those reformers who dare vote against the establishment may find a big target on their back, which is why it is so easy for McCarthy to line up votes. Chaffetz will need to pull out all the stops to have a fighting chance, but then he risks retaliation. Can he do it, or will he eventually succumb to the old guard like most members of Congress?