Economist Breaks Down Trump Tariffs

You’ve been hearing all kinds of news about the tariffs President Donald Trump has been imposing on other countries — and a lot about how that might affect your everyday life and purchases. Are the tariffs a good thing, a bad thing — or maybe a little of both?

In this 35-minute video, Peter Demos gets the straight dope from Mises Institute Senior Fellow Jonathan Newman, an economist who knows how to break complex economic principles down in a way that even children can understand them (which he’s done in a series of children’s books!). Newman to break down the real impact of tariffs, trade deficits and protectionist policies. He explains how tariffs act as hidden taxes, harm consumers, and distort markets—while offering smarter, freer alternatives to strengthen America’s economy without sacrificing freedom.

Peter Demos is the author of On the Duty of Christian Civil Disobedience and the host of Uncommon Sense in Current Times. A Christian business leader from Tennessee, Demos uses his biblical perspective and insight gained from his own struggles to lead others to truth and authenticity in a broken world. To learn more, visit peterdemos.org.

Editor’s Note: The transcript that follows was automatically generated and lightly edited, so please be aware there could be typos or other small errors. The Stream is working toward a transcription service that does fast, accurate, and reliable work; thank you in advance for your patience!

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Revolution of common sense.

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Revolution of common sense. A revolution of common sense. Truth was once common sense.

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Hey, folks, welcome to uncommon sense in current times. Today we want to address the issue of tariffs and trade policy. There’s a lot of thought on this. With Trump’s tariffs that are there. But I don’t think many of us are really aware of the impact that will have on us, either beginning or end. I think we just kind of buy a lot of the narratives that are out there in both directions.

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and so as we see how this can impact our economy, we know that as we are to go out and culture and to, to deal with culture, economics plays a large part in what’s going on with our culture. And so therefore we need to understand it a little bit better so that we can be ambassadors within it.

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So that’s why today I’ve invited, Doctor Jonathan Newman here to talk with us. Doctor Newman earned his PhD from Auburn University. I have to I have to say War Eagle. It just has to come out. he’s a full. You see, he’s a fellow at the Mises Institute. his research is focused more on the Austrian economics, inflation and business cycles.

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the history of economic thought. he’s taught courses of macroeconomics, quantitative economics. All of this stuff is just way beyond my level. but so this is why I’m excited about the other part of it. He’s also the author of two children’s books, The Broken Window and Ludwig the Builder, which explain complicated economic theory in simple terms.

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So that’s exactly what I need. I’m sure many of us on this, on, this listening to this probably needed as well. So thank you so much. I appreciate you being here. Thank you.

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Yeah. Yeah. Thank you so much for having me. Looking forward to it.

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All right, so for those who don’t follow trade policy closely, who doesn’t understand and can even define what a tariff is like, they probably heard of it just recently because there’s he can’t turn on the news without talking about it. Can you define tariffs and trade deficits in simple terms? Explain the relationships, how that works in a basic sense.

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Yeah, absolutely. So a tariff is simply a tax. It’s a tax that applies to imports to the country. And of course they can be targeted to, particular goods. They can be targeted to particular countries. so like we can apply it like a 10% tariff on all goods coming in from Canada, for example. I’m not exactly sure what the what the rate is today, but since they’ve been fluctuating.

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but the idea is that, if any, if any good is produced in Canada and then sold here, in the United States, 10% would have to go to the US government. So it’s just like a, a sales tax that you might pay at the store, like the grocery store. a certain percent, is, you know, taken from that transaction and it’s, sent over to the government.

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So a tariff is a trade deficit. It’s it’s really a terrible term because it has this word deficit in it. And we’re, we sort of associate deficits with, like, bad. It means that we’re overspending, accumulating too much debt, that sort of thing. But a and that that is true. If we’re talking about a budget deficit. So like if the US government is running a budget deficit, it does mean that it’s, having to finance that spending with additional debt because it collects a certain amount in taxes, and then it spends more than that.

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And so that extra that’s not collected in taxes has to be financed somehow, usually through issuing debt. and then much of that debt is purchased by the Federal Reserve, which means that it’s monetized. So we get, debt monetization or an increase in the money supply. Okay. So that’s a budget deficit. Let me now explain what a trade deficit is so we can see how they’re different.

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A trade deficit is simply a difference in, how much money is it is flowing in different directions. So we could talk about, my trade deficit with my local grocery store. I have a huge trade deficit with my local grocery store. And the reason why is because all of the money is flowing from me in my household to the grocery store.

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And since I’m not employed by the grocery store, I don’t sell anything to the grocery store. There is no money coming from the grocery store over to me in my household. So there’s, there’s a huge imbalance, so to speak, in terms of the money flows between me and the grocery store. And you can say the same thing about two different countries, like, we’ll stick with, us in Canada.

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it could be that there’s, many people in the US are purchasing things that were produced in Canada and, people in Canada aren’t buying as much stuff from here in the United States. which means that there’s a trade deficit between the US and Canada. It simply means that money is on net. Money is flowing in one direction and goods are flowing in the on that in the other direction.

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So that’s what a trade deficit is. If you if you think about it, there’s I mean there’s nothing, necessarily bad about a trade deficit. There’s nothing that’s unsustainable about a trade deficit. There’s there’s nothing that’s unfair about my relationship with my grocery store. And we can say the same thing about, producers and consumers who happen to exist in two different countries.

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There’s nothing that’s inherently bad about a a country level trade deficit.

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Okay, but if I but but just off that definition and I’m just a, you know, average person on the street, it sounds like that a that a tariff that I’m putting on somebody else is good for me because I’m not the that it impacts them. It doesn’t impact me. And our government is is getting better from it. And it sounds like a trade deficit even though, it sounds like we want to end up being on top of all the trade out there.

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Why is that thinking wrong or is it wrong?

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Yeah. So, a tariff a tariff does impact both, domestic consumers and foreign producers. So there’s there’s a lot of, a lot of debate over this, like, who actually pays for the tariff. and the answer is that it it has many effects everywhere. It’s not something that’s, just solely, paid for. And all of the effects, all the consequences are concentrated on one particular foreign producer, for example.

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But it’s also not the case that, you’ll hear, this a lot in the left. It’s not the case that the tariff is simply passed on to domestic consumers. Like, you’ll you’ll hear some people on the left, and they’ll say, oh, Trump is imposing these tariffs. all of that is going to be paid for by, domestic consumers.

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So like, like the the foreign producers are simply going to shift the cost of the tariff onto us. Right? That’s their rhetoric. But the truth is that it’s it’s really a mixture of both. there is no shifting of the cost of the tariff. what actually happens is, when you when you implement a tariff that’s going to cause some marginal producers to leave the market.

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So at, at some level of, of of a tariff between two countries, some foreign producers are now going to realize it’s not profitable for us to produce and, and sell in the United States. It’s too costly with this extra tariff. So we’re actually going to withhold supply of those goods to the United States. And now what that means is, when you have a reduction in supply, that does result in an increase in price because because now there’s, you know, less supply here in the United States.

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And so that causes an increase in price. But notice that that’s not a just a shifting. It’s not a passing a cost on to the consumers. What happens first is there’s a reduction in supply. And that’s what causes the higher price. So it’s not a cost shifting action. It’s a reduction in price and then a higher equilibrium price.

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If you if you’ve ever taken econ 101, you can move the curves around and you can see there’s a higher equilibrium price when there’s a, reduction in supply. So, so but it’s true for and producers are harmed, domestic consumers are harmed because they have to pay higher prices and there’s less there’s less of this good to go around.

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but there are some winners, the winners are domestically protected industries. So if there was an industry or a firm here in the United States that had been competing with that foreign producer, and now they had to leave the US market because of the tariff, now that domestic producer is, at least in the short run, in a better position because the US has basically just negated their competition, they they don’t have to compete with that foreign producer anymore.

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So there are some concentrated benefits, that’s for sure. So and that’s I think that those concentrated benefits have driven a lot of the rhetoric over tariffs for protectionism ever since it’s been around building, going back to the 1700s, 1600s where we had mercantilist and lots of protectionist, policies. And in fact, the whole science of economics was invented in that environment.

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So you go back to Adam Smith, Richard Kantian, their first treatises, they talked a lot about tariffs and protectionism, and some of the first few economic conclusions that were drawn was that protectionism is not a good way to go. Tariffs. They they, distort the market. They cause us to produce things where we don’t have the comparative advantage.

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It inhibits the global division of labor. It makes us less productive, less well off. it’s all even going back to the early days, 1600s and 1700s. It was all of these tariffs, all these trade barriers were erected with the intention of accumulating gold. And in our modern day, accumulating dollars, it’s like we want to keep more dollars here in the United States.

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But all of the classical economists, and even up until this day, there’s broad economic consensus that those sorts of policies are harmful in general. There might be some there might be some producers who benefit, but the overall impact is negative.

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What about the thought and the idea that the purpose of the tariffs is also to help? Well, let’s let’s take the fentanyl, for example. The, us take the, you know, other areas that that we might be using tariffs for or to also control other countries. But to say, look, you’re doing things that are damaging to us, and in order for us to protect us, we can either send our troops in or we can penalize you through other means economically.

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I mean, we could do sanctions. but a lot of times those aren’t really effective depending on how many other people join. so tariffs seem to be a way to be able to do that. And I know the Trump has been arguing that. Well, what’s your thoughts on that piece of it outside of the economic perspective of it.

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Yeah. Outside of the economic perspective there there are lots of things that you could say for tariffs, for example, like trying to get other countries to do certain things like we want this other country to, do more police action to prevent the production and sale of fentanyl and other bad things that we don’t like. And it’s it’s very true.

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I mean, tariffs could be a good negotiating tool to achieve those sorts of results. I’m I’m skeptical of it. I think that there’s probably other ways that we could, sort of pressure other countries to do the things that we want, namely, stop, stop outsourcing, or stop providing us tax dollars to be used in the defense of other countries.

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Right. So, right. So you use that as leverage because that that would actually result in a win for U.S. taxpayers as opposed to, a cost or a loss associated with, the, the tariffs. and so I think, I think, something like tariffs should probably further down on the list in terms of like leverage tools. but you’re absolutely right.

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it sort of depends on the circumstance. It depends on, on how the, the negative consequences of the tariffs, are or how they play out. And like which country is more harmed as a result of the tariffs? but but in my view, the tariffs, they are costly. We should recognize that they’re costly. Imposing tariffs is costly.

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But, you know, sometimes certain things are worth the costs. Like we don’t want any more of this drug coming across the border. Suppose that’s, you know, just a broadly held majority opinion. and they think that the government ought to do something to, to fix it. If that’s the case, then, you know, tariffs might be somewhere in the toolkit there.

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But we should we should always understand that it comes at a cost. And that cost is diminished trade market distortions, higher prices, those sorts of things. Another if you’ll allow me to expand here, please. another argument that, I have I see I see the tariff side of this argument. very well, is the national security argument that if we’re going to be, if it’s likely that we’re going to be going to war with another country, we definitely do not want to be dependent on that country, for the production of, you know, essential goods like weapons, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, the stuff that we need to make tanks.

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So if we’re if it looks like we’re going to be going to war or that this country could be an enemy sometime in the future, we definitely do not want to be economically dependent on them to produce the things that we would need to defend ourselves. Right? Right. and so there’s this argument for tariffs. It says we’ll use tariffs to protect the industries here in this country.

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that would make those sorts of things. And that way we have the economic capacity to make those things if the time comes. I totally understand that argument. That makes sense to me. Once again, we should remember that there’s a cost associated with that. It’s that’s it means that we’re, we’re tolerating some economic inefficiency in order to achieve that status of of being, prepared to defend ourselves, but also, even in this case, I think that there are better tools, namely subsidies.

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If we wanted to target particular industries, particular firms, to, to maintain production and be able to make the things that we need to defend ourselves, we should use subsidies. because they are more targeted and the costs are clear and upfront, and us taxpayers can see this is how much defense preparedness is costing us, as opposed to tariffs where the costs are dispersed, they cause all of these other distortions.

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You’re going to have impacts on so many other industries besides the one that you’re trying to, help protect for security purposes. and so for that reason, I think that, there’s, there’s still better tools, namely subsidies instead of the use of general broad tariffs that have all of these other, distortions associated with them.

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But, and, and and if I agree completely with you and be like, okay, the tariffs or the tariffs are not the best means that we can use, etc., but we have allowed tariffs to be placed on our goods and services now for years, many, many years. And no one really has spoke out about that, you know, for decades.

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No one has said, oh, it’s terrible that they can’t. And as a matter of fact, the only person that truly I know that has ever spoke out about it, that I can remember, and probably because it just keeps popping up every time, is like Trump back in the 80s said, hey, this is a terrible idea that they’re too in tariffs and we’re not doing anything about it on our goods and services.

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So why is that? Because because it sounds like what you’re saying is tariffs are bad, provided that everybody is operating on an equal footing, that people are operating with the idea of wanting a fair market across the world and a global fair market. But when it seems to be unfair, when you’re dealing with a government controlled a group like China or or others even like Canada, that was been putting this extra tariffs on us throughout these years to increase their coffers.

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Why is it that now all of a sudden it’s a problem? And why why should we not look at this idea, reciprocal tariffs in order to get somebody to stop it. And before you answer that, you know, Ontario Mayor Ford just recently said, and I was like, there’s a Western Journal article about it where he was saying, look, if Trump takes off, I’ll take mine away if he agrees to take it away.

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So it already seems to kind of have that effect. what’s your opinion on all that and how that kind of plays out here?

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Yeah, it’s a great question. once again, this is another, thing that’s sort of outside of the realm of, of economic theory, specifically using tariffs as a negotiating tool to get other countries to decrease their trade barriers. Right. So I mean, it could be that it works. It could be that it doesn’t work. well, we have seen some examples where the the threat of a new tariff actually caused another government to back down and decrease their own tariffs.

00;17;39;13 – 00;17;57;15
I would count that as a success. It’s like, hey, that’s that’s good. It it worked that time. But for for every one case like that, I imagine there’s 2 or 3 cases where the other government responds, fighting fire with fire. Basically, we’re going to raise our tariffs and you ignite a trade war. like you mentioned, China.

00;17;57;15 – 00;18;16;22
I think China just recently raised their, tariffs in response to the new tariffs from the Trump administration. So it seems it seems like it could go either way. Like sometimes it works. And we we get a negotiated, lower level of total tariffs between the countries. But sometimes it, it, it flares up and goes in the other direction.

00;18;16;25 – 00;18;39;17
and that probably just depends on the, the, the political actors. It depends on their personalities. Depends. the sorts of, people that are inside these countries and, what they vote for, what the majority opinion is. So, you know, I can’t really say one way or the other in terms of it’s, that’s a good tactic.

00;18;39;17 – 00;19;09;28
That’s a good strategy. I’m not sure. It seems to me that it could go either way, but the the way that we should view foreign tariffs. So like China, imposes a tariff on us or, Canada imposes a tariff on us. the way that we should view that is the other country shooting itself in the foot is the other country that’s hampering its own access to this, this huge market of buyers in the United States that everybody wants a little piece of.

00;19;09;28 – 00;19;31;20
Everybody wants to be able to sell stuff to the rich Americans. Right. and so if they’re if they’re erecting tariffs, they’re really harming themselves more than they’re harming us. And so we should view that as, than just doing something bad for themselves. And it doesn’t really make sense for us to do something bad to ourselves in response to another country shooting itself in the foot.

00;19;31;20 – 00;19;56;16
Right. I mean, unless you have this sort of this well thought out strategy that by, introducing a reciprocal tariff, you could eventually get the total level of tariffs between the countries to decrease. so, I mean, except for that case, it’s if you deem it likely. Now, there are other government controls in other countries, like you mentioned, China subsidizing various industries.

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or to keep going with Canada. Suppose Canada is, subsidizing its energy. Excuse me? Energy production. and that might make it, might make energy cheaper in some parts of the United States. The way that we should view that is that’s another country that’s doing something bad for them, because that’s distorting resource allocation with those within those countries, but is beneficial for us.

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It’s like the Chinese government doing us a favor, making cheaper products, more plentiful products for us, or Canada, making it cheaper for us to consume energy if they if they have big energy subsidies there. So that’s it’s another country shooting itself in the foot but has positive effects for us. and so I don’t see how it’s, I don’t see how it’s logical, how it makes sense for us to respond to that favor, basically, with erecting trade barriers of our own.

00;20;56;07 – 00;21;23;11
If it’s if it’s so terrible, why then, well, let me posit this theory with you because I’m curious, because obviously we lost a lot of our manufacturing to a lot of these other countries. and it’s and those countries have the tariffs and tariffs are bad for those businesses that are there. Arguably, they wouldn’t be wanting to go to those businesses because of the tariffs.

00;21;23;14 – 00;21;52;06
But is that because and and I would I guess my theory is, is that we’ve had so many regulations and made it so cost prohibitive to do work here that they had to go there. So even with the tariffs is still beneficial. So by default, would it not be better for us to focus more on decreasing the regulations for focusing more on a lot of the stuff that makes it better cost wise for people to want to come here and make the free market work in that way.

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Do you agree with that? Disagree with that? What do you think?

00;21;54;24 – 00;22;19;16
I agree 100% that that should be our focus. We should make it as attractive as possible for, people around the world to want to sell stuff inside the United States, but also invest in the United States. in fact, that’s, a great part of how, this continent got started are huge investments, especially from Great Britain forward, like the, railways here in the United States.

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and that was, you know, essential for our, you know, explosion of economic growth. And that’s and that’s because the US was an attractive place to invest. So we should not discourage that with, regulations. another big one is minimum wage laws that this is, a big reason why, domestic firms, you know, they finally say it’s too expensive for us to employ a bunch of people here in the United States.

00;22;44;13 – 00;22;58;02
We’re going to have to go to some other country that doesn’t have minimum wage legislation. So, yes, decrease, decrease regulation, get rid of minimum wage laws, let the market work and and we all benefit as a result.

00;22;58;04 – 00;23;15;22
So what if the tariffs were targeted to US companies that went overseas okay. It’s like okay so here we go. You want to you want to you want to destroy Flint Michigan. You know back in the 70s. You want to you want to pull out everything. You want to destroy Flint. And arguably the unions were really a large part in that.

00;23;15;22 – 00;23;37;25
I mean, we can go both directions there, I think. But but so. Okay, now you you put that plant over Mexico. Well, okay. Now Ford or GM or whoever it was that decided you want to do that now we’re going to actually target you with the tariffs, because any company that left and hurt our workers has to subsidize the workers by coming back into through taxes, etc..

00;23;37;25 – 00;23;45;16
What would your opinion be on that is, almost like a punishment. You don’t want to leave because we’re going to get you. What? What’s your thought on that?

00;23;45;19 – 00;24;07;22
my my thought is I don’t I mean, if if they’re leaving because of regulations, if they’re leaving because of minimum wage laws, then we’re we would be punishing them for doing something that’s not really their fault. They’re just responding to the incentives that they’re facing here in the United States. Okay. Right. So it’s like we’re forcing you out and we’re going to punish you because you’re leaving.

00;24;07;26 – 00;24;28;14
So, and so those were the reasons why now, if, it or the other thing is I’m not I’m not a constitutional scholar, but I, I think, laws and taxes had to be generally applied. So I don’t think there’s a way to apply. I mean, unless you made a new law that said it’s illegal for you to do this.

00;24;28;14 – 00;24;45;08
And here’s the fee, here’s the fine that you have to pay if you do that. But then it’s it’s not it’s not a tax anymore. It’s not a tariff. It’s a it’s a legal fee. Right. a fine that you have to pay. So I mean, those are just my initial thoughts. I haven’t really, you know, thought much about that sort of scenario.

00;24;45;11 – 00;24;45;28
but.

00;24;46;00 – 00;25;11;14
earlier you mentioned, manufacturing here in the United States. Now, I’ve been looking at the, the data recently. And you’re absolutely right that manufacturing employment is down, especially since the 90s. So manufacturing employment has decreased, in the United States quite significantly. However, manufacturing output has increased tremendously. Huge increase in how much we’re manufacturing here in the United States.

00;25;11;17 – 00;25;36;24
So a lot of what we perceive as, a drought in manufacturing here in the US is just based on looking at the jobs in manufacturing as opposed to what’s being produced, because manufacturing output is higher than it’s ever been. and I, I attribute that to technological innovation, big increases in capital productivity, labor productivity, as well as as people acquire skills, that sort of thing.

00;25;36;24 – 00;25;59;02
But and also there have been a few, spats of, you know, decreased regulations. And we can attribute that to making production more efficient here in the United States. But at the same time, like if we’re concerned about jobs. And so I, I was starting to see it was the decline in manufacturing employment, something that was seen in other sorts of industries.

00;25;59;04 – 00;26;22;09
or was it just specific to manufacturing? And what I found is that if you look at other sectors, there’s there’s been a big increase in employment like, construction employment is higher than it’s ever been. transportation employment is higher than it’s ever been. Warehousing employment is higher than it’s ever been. Interesting. white collar employment, like business and professional services, is higher than it’s ever been.

00;26;22;09 – 00;26;57;20
And those, typically are very well paying. Of course, you know, trades like, you know, electrical work and warehouse transportation, those can pay well as well. and so I think, I think, if we become hyper focused on manufacturing employment and if we ignore manufacturing output and we ignore the increase in employment and all of these other sectors, then it can lead us to this conclusion that, oh, the government’s got to step in and do something to save manufacturing employment, when in fact, there the employment has gone into other industries.

00;26;57;22 – 00;27;18;01
Now, people I know, and this is all anecdotal. So this is clearly not. But anyone I know that that that that runs or manages businesses, etc. they’re always looking for the forklift drivers, the plumbers, the electrical, you know, the electricians, every, you know, Hvac, the, you know, not even mechanical engineers per se, but just the people, the techs that can work on it.

00;27;18;03 – 00;27;40;16
And it seems like to me that the drop also seems to be coincide with this idea that everyone gets has to go to college at colleges, everybody, even though it’s not and we taken away the shop out of schools, we’ve taken away a lot of the trades that are out there. And I know we’ve kind of given a little lip service to trade schools, and it’s kind of been there, but it’s there’s been a social stigma attached.

00;27;40;18 – 00;27;59;08
Oh, you’re not going to college. You’re only going, you know, meanwhile they go to college, have a whole lot of degrees, come out making 50 a year versus someone that goes to a trade school has no that comes out making 80, 90 a year. you know, but but but there’s a stigma to it. would you agree that that in order to bring manufacturing back.

00;27;59;08 – 00;28;11;26
So let’s just say Trump is 100% correct and it’s going to bring manufacturing back. Do you agree that that by failing to address that issue, we’re going to end up with all this manufacturing, but no workers to be able to deal with it?

00;28;11;28 – 00;28;35;24
Yeah, I 100% agree with you. What we’ve done to higher education in the United States is, is just despicable. I attribute a lot of it to the federally subsidized student loans, because that has caused way more people than otherwise to, you know, take on huge debts to go get this four year degree or even go on to get further degrees after that.

00;28;35;26 – 00;29;01;24
when, if, if those subsidized loans weren’t there, they would have learned a trade. They would have, you know, gone into some into manufacturing, for example, or into some other trade that’s, you know, producing physical, tangible things here in the U.S. and as a result of those loans, we’ve seen like massive bloat inside of, of schools like, these D-I offices, you know, tons and tons of administrators.

00;29;01;24 – 00;29;22;03
If you look at a chart of, administrators and faculty in higher education, it actually looks the same for hospitals when you compare administrators and doctors. there’s just been this explosion in administration. So, you know, people moving paper around, people who, you know, they go to meetings all day, while the faculty are teaching the students and while the doctors are treating patients.

00;29;22;03 – 00;29;45;25
Right. and so all of this is, you know, bundled up together. All of it is because of, government involvement, you know, subsidized student loans. And you’re right, if if Trump is right. So it’ll grant Trump the assumption that the tariffs will bring back, a big demand for manufac curing jobs here in the United States, then there could be some issues in finding employment.

00;29;45;25 – 00;30;20;15
And as an economist, I can tell you what that means is the people who do get those jobs will have very nice pay. They will get, they they will be able to command a high price for their labor. and what that what that means, if we can take it a step further, is that will make college less attractive because these students, these potential students will look out at their, different career options and they’ll see, hey, I can earn boatloads of money, working in this factory, or I can take on a bunch of debt and get a degree in underwater underwater basket weaving.

00;30;20;15 – 00;30;40;26
Right. So, so. And of course, more, more and more students are going to take that, take the non-college option since it’s so financially attractive. and that will spell the doom for the public, especially public universities, in the United States, because they don’t have the students, they don’t get the tuition, they don’t get the money. Right.

00;30;40;29 – 00;30;48;00
You know, it almost sounds like you’re advocating that Elon Musk needs to go into hospitals and universities and clean house there, too.

00;30;48;00 – 00;31;11;19
So I doubt that would be nice. I, I love I love the, musk shake up of DC. I’ve been a big doge cheerleader. really? My only criticism of Doge is that it’s not going far enough. I would love to see whole agencies eliminated big reductions in government spending, big reductions in government employment. so it’s it’s been wonderful to see.

00;31;11;21 – 00;31;29;07
Well, I appreciate again you being here, I really do. I think this has been a but a great conversation and helping us kind of understand what’s happening from it from here kind of. We’re at the end of time. So I want to ask you just one last question, though. For those that are just listening, I mean, we can talk about it from a theoretical sense, but the tariffs are coming.

00;31;29;07 – 00;31;49;01
I’m already as a as a in the restaurant business that I own. We’re already seeing people increase prices even before the tariffs hit. Even on domestic product like chicken from the from from the state of Alabama. And they’re like the tariffs have caused the chicken to go up. And I’m like wait a second. These chickens are already living the terrorists and go into effect it like I’m pushing back.

00;31;49;01 – 00;32;07;22
But but nevertheless what advice do you give us now like just the regular person on the street? Is there anything that we can really do? Prepare. What do we need to do to prepare for the, let’s just say, the next three, six months of, of this, possible damage that could be caused by tariffs or maybe not sure.

00;32;07;29 – 00;32;28;11
I, I am not a financial advisor. I do not, you know, manage anybody else’s portfolio. but I do think that we’re due for a recession. I’m not saying that that’s going to happen in the next 3 to 6 months, but I think it’s it’s likely. And it could happen. if a recession comes, I would definitely not say that it was caused by the tariffs.

00;32;28;11 – 00;32;47;13
And that’s exactly what everybody’s going to say. If a recession comes, everybody, all the news media, they’re going to blame it on Trump’s tariffs. And I mean, there might be a little nugget of truth in there that the tariffs are, you know, causing some economic efficiency, and, and reduced production here in the United States. That’s certainly possible.

00;32;47;15 – 00;33;10;22
But I think fundamentally the, the cause of a recession is bad monetary policy. It’s bad monetary and fiscal policy that has happened for years and years. and, and that causes, you know, this big snowball, this big, buildup of entrepreneurial mistakes. and the projects that were started during the easy money period, they can’t be completed. So that’s Austrian business cycle theory.

00;33;10;25 – 00;33;32;27
And now something like a big change in tariffs that can sort of trigger entrepreneurs to take another look at their projects and say, is this really feasible? And then they decide no. And then they liquidate and they, lay off workers and we have a full blown recession. But the point is that the, the, the tariffs, the the abrupt policy change is really just a trigger for something that was already baked in.

00;33;32;29 – 00;33;51;04
That’s my own personal view. But in terms of like what you can do if I’m just talking to an average person, I would say educate yourself. So here at the Mrs. Institute, we, we, our mission is to educate people. It’s to teach Austrian economics, sound economics, critical thinking. peace, liberty, all of those sorts of good things.

00;33;51;07 – 00;34;10;06
and so I highly recommend that you check out our website. in fact, there’s, we’re doing a book promotion right now. If you go to Mississauga, slash my money, you can get a free copy of Rothbard. What has government done to our money? It’s an excellent. It’s a short little book, very accessible. and and you can get a totally free copy, even even shipping.

00;34;10;06 – 00;34;25;29
It is covered, I’m pretty sure, in the United States. And that will be, you know, mailed to you. So once again, that link is Mississauga. Mrs. slash smy money and, you know, come once you go to our website, stick around to see all the articles and videos that we have.

00;34;26;02 – 00;34;43;14
All right. That sounds good. And we’ll put that in the show notes too. So anybody that is driving doesn’t have to, stop, pull over the side of the road, write that down. So, well, well, doctor, thank you again so much. I do appreciate you being on the show. Appreciate your insights on this. And, it was very helpful.

00;34;43;14 – 00;34;44;15
Thank you again.

00;34;44;17 – 00;34;46;11
Yeah. Thank you so much for having me. This is great.

00;34;46;18 – 00;34;48;04
All right. And War Eagle.

00;34;48;06 – 00;34;48;23
War Eagle.