Clinton’s 31 Point Lead Evaporates in Six Weeks, Trump’s Shrinks but Holds

By The Stream Published on February 6, 2016

Having led Bernie Sanders among Democratic voters by a huge 61% to 30% margin in mid-December, Hillary Clinton found herself leading only 44% to 42% — within the margin of error, which means that Sanders may in fact be leading her — in a Qunnipiac University poll conducted at the end of January and released today.

In December, 41% of Democrats had said they might change their mind, and apparently many did as Sanders surged in popularity and Clinton continued to be dogged by scandals. The percentage of undecided voters rose between the two polls from 5% to 11%.

Worse for Clinton, while Sanders has a 44% to 35% favorability rating among all voters, only 39% think of Clinton favorably and 56% negatively. And even worse, in match-ups with the Republican candidates, Sanders does better than Clinton against each one. While she would tie Ted Cruz, for example, he would win by 4 points.

The Republicans

Despite his unexpectedly poor showing in Iowa, Donald Trump still leads the Republican candidates with 31% of Republicans and Republican “leaners” as the poll calls them. Cruz was second with 22% and Rubio third with 19%. Carson was a distant fourth with 6% and Bush, Christie, Kasich, and Fiorina essentially tied with 2 to 3%.

Among white born again Evangelicals, Trump has a slight lead, with 31% choosing him at this point, compared with Cruz’s 28% and Rubio’s 18%. Trump also led among Tea Partiers and men, Cruz among women, and Rubio among the college-educated. Trump was also the most opposed candidate (30% said they wouldn’t vote for him), while Rubio was the most acceptable (only 7% would not vote for him).

This poll added a twist, asking people how they would vote if former New York City mayor, and also former Republican, Michael Bloomberg entered the race. Sanders would lose by 1% to Trump but win by 1% over Cruz. (The poll apparently didn’t ask about Rubio.) In both elections, Bloomberg would get about one in six votes.

In the university’s press release for this latest poll, the assistant director of the poll summarized the results: “In mano a mano, or mano a womano, face-offs with all contenders, Sanders and Rubio would be the candidates left standing. Although he is characterized as the New York counterpunch to Trump, Mayor Mike Bloomberg is more the nemesis of Bernie than he is of Donald.” He added: “While Trump, Clinton and Cruz wallow in a negative favorability swamp, by comparison, Rubio and Sanders are rock stars.”

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