Clinton Gets Convention Bounce, Regains Slight Lead Over Trump

By Dustin Siggins Published on August 1, 2016

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is back on top after last week’s Democratic Convention, having regained her lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump in the latest RealClear Politics (RCP) average of national polls — though not by much.

Trump pulled even a week ago, taking a statistically insignificant lead of 0.9 points in the RCP average. Trump has long been well behind Clinton in the polls, but the GOP convention and a new email scandal involving Democratic leaders’ efforts to help Clinton beat primary opponent Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) have been credited with his bump.

Clinton’s lead of 2.2 points is within the margin of error in the head-to-head RCP average. The former First Lady’s lead could grow, however, if this past weekend’s polls are any indication. Only three of the RCP polls included in the average concluded this past weekend or today, with two showing Clinton lead by six and five points, respectively, and one showing Trump leading by four points. A CBS poll released this morning and a poll released yesterday by the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling group were conducted only over the weekend.

The LA Times/USC poll showing Trump with a four-point lead was conducted throughout the last week, and released this morning.

Looking beyond the head-to-head polling, Clinton has a slightly larger lead when Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson is included in the polling. When Green Party nominee Jill Stein is included in polling, making voters choose between all four candidates, Trump has closed to a direct tie in recent polls.

In addition to a small convention bump, Clinton has benefited from modestly better party unity than Trump, though Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey noted on Monday that Trump slightly leads among independent voters who lean toward one party or the other. Morrissey also cautioned observers “to wait for two to three weeks after major events to see what happens in polls once voters have fully absorbed the changes.”

The RCP electoral map shows Clinton winning 202 electoral votes and Trump 154, with 182 in play.

Khan v. Trump

It is not known whether the public’s view of the candidates has been affected by a very public war of words between the GOP nominee and the father of a Muslim Army captain who died heroically in 2004 defending his unit. The father of Capt Humayun Khan criticized Trump from the stage on the last night of the Democratic Convention, calling him a “divider” and declaring “You have sacrificed nothing.”

In response to Khizr Khan’s convention address, Trump accused him of not allowing his wife to speak, as she was stood quietly next to her husband. Khan’s mother wrote a Washington Post op-ed saying she was too grieved about her son’s death to speak at the convention. “Every day, whenever I pray, I have to pray for him, and I cry. The place that emptied will always be empty,” she wrote.

After being widely criticized for the first remark, Trump tweeted “Captain Khan, killed 12 years ago, was a hero, but this is about RADICAL ISLAMIC TERROR and the weakness of our “leaders” to eradicate it!”

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