“You know, I think Jeb Bush is toast,” I told one of my editors after Wednesday night’s debate.

“I kinda do too,” he replied. “I’m just worried because that’s what everyone else seems to think too.”

Yes, we pride ourselves on being skeptical of the conventional wisdom here at FiveThirtyEight. You don’t have to look very far back for examples of it being wrong, such as how it badly overestimated the degree of danger that Hillary Clinton’s campaign was in until a week or two ago. But being skeptical is not the same thing as being a contrarian. There are plenty of times when the conventional wisdom is right. This is probably one of those times.

Read the article “Yeah, Jeb Bush is Probably Toast” on fivethirtyeight.com.