ANALYSIS: With Same-Sex ‘Marriage’ Legal, Democrats Could Lose Big in the 2016 Election
The Supreme Court’s recent decision to make gay marriage legal nationwide was a significant victory for liberals. In next year’s election, however, the decision will hurt Democrats. Success, after all, presents it own set of challenges.
As sociologists Mayer Zald and Roberta Ash pointed out in their classic 1966 study of social movement organizations, the two biggest challenges of a social movement are complete success and complete failure (Social Forces 44 (March)).
The ideal situation for maintaining a social movement, they wrote, would be to “over time always [seem] to be getting closer to its goal without quite attaining it.”
Now that the social movement to enact gay marriage has achieved complete success, it will no longer be a mobilizing force in elections. This is bad news for Democrats.
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